Interesting last match in the Cup tonight.
Match: KV Mechelen vs Cercle Brugge
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.95 (Bwin )
Stake: 3/10 (normal bet)
This is the last match of the Belgian Cup for this round. There are a couple fators that make me believe that there is value in the odds they are offering on the Over 2.5 Goals. Both teams are capable of playing a very attractive and offensive game. Cercle is the revelation of the season and there is no direct reason why this would not continue. Against Brugge they played good but were unable to take points probably because of a lack of experiance in that type of top matches & the luck that was on the side of Club. KV Mechelen seems to be finding it's turn and they also seem to be much more capable of scoring goals with Nong who's in a good form. There are also a lot op players who where injured that are available again now (charai, kielo-lezi, wellemans, vanbelle). In the league they played a very poor match at home against Cercle and Lost with a 0 - 4 score. Both teams had last week off and should be ready and fit to give it their best in front of probably packed stadion. It's also a real cup match and that athmosphere usually stands for higher scoring matches. Another interesting detail is the fact that this match has been 'chosen' to be broadcast live on Belgian National television. I believe that the main reason for this is because they are also expecting an exciting offensive minded match with at least a couple goals. During the first half of last season there was also broadcast 1 match live each week and the statistics on those specific matches when it comes down to U/O 2.5 are very clear. Mainly because they picked the more exciting matches & also because these lower ranked team aren't used to live coverage. On national tv, coach and player of these lower ranked teams will want to look good wich results in generaly higer scoring matches.
Last Seasons Matches that were chosen to be broadcast live on TV (10-2 on Over 2.5Goals)
CLUB BRUGGE - CHARLEROI 2 - 0
CHARLEROI - WESTERLO 1 - 2
SINT-TRUIDEN - RACING GENK 1 - 2
LOKEREN - STANDARD 2 - 1
ROESELARE - CLUB BRUGGE 3 - 2
WESTERLO - ANDERLECHT 3 - 4
K.AA.GENT - CHARLEROI 2 - 1
GENK - GENT 3 - 1
STANDARD - BRUSSELS 2 - 1
ZULTE-WAREGEM - ROESELARE 2 - 4
AA GENT - STANDARD 2-1
BRUSSELS - CLUB BRUGGE 1-1
Last interesting fact is that Unibet who can be taken as one of the main references when it comes down to odds involving the belgian League has got 1.75 odds on the over 2.5 (2.01 at asians). A huge difference that's way more then the usual gap betweer asia & EU books.
So all these facts make me like the over 2.5 Goals in this spot @ 1.95 (I give it at least around 56%)
So 3/10 on KV Mechelen vs Cercle Brugge -> Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 (Bwin)
Match: KV Mechelen vs Cercle Brugge
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.95 (Bwin )
Stake: 3/10 (normal bet)
This is the last match of the Belgian Cup for this round. There are a couple fators that make me believe that there is value in the odds they are offering on the Over 2.5 Goals. Both teams are capable of playing a very attractive and offensive game. Cercle is the revelation of the season and there is no direct reason why this would not continue. Against Brugge they played good but were unable to take points probably because of a lack of experiance in that type of top matches & the luck that was on the side of Club. KV Mechelen seems to be finding it's turn and they also seem to be much more capable of scoring goals with Nong who's in a good form. There are also a lot op players who where injured that are available again now (charai, kielo-lezi, wellemans, vanbelle). In the league they played a very poor match at home against Cercle and Lost with a 0 - 4 score. Both teams had last week off and should be ready and fit to give it their best in front of probably packed stadion. It's also a real cup match and that athmosphere usually stands for higher scoring matches. Another interesting detail is the fact that this match has been 'chosen' to be broadcast live on Belgian National television. I believe that the main reason for this is because they are also expecting an exciting offensive minded match with at least a couple goals. During the first half of last season there was also broadcast 1 match live each week and the statistics on those specific matches when it comes down to U/O 2.5 are very clear. Mainly because they picked the more exciting matches & also because these lower ranked team aren't used to live coverage. On national tv, coach and player of these lower ranked teams will want to look good wich results in generaly higer scoring matches.
Last Seasons Matches that were chosen to be broadcast live on TV (10-2 on Over 2.5Goals)
CLUB BRUGGE - CHARLEROI 2 - 0
CHARLEROI - WESTERLO 1 - 2
SINT-TRUIDEN - RACING GENK 1 - 2
LOKEREN - STANDARD 2 - 1
ROESELARE - CLUB BRUGGE 3 - 2
WESTERLO - ANDERLECHT 3 - 4
K.AA.GENT - CHARLEROI 2 - 1
GENK - GENT 3 - 1
STANDARD - BRUSSELS 2 - 1
ZULTE-WAREGEM - ROESELARE 2 - 4
AA GENT - STANDARD 2-1
BRUSSELS - CLUB BRUGGE 1-1
Last interesting fact is that Unibet who can be taken as one of the main references when it comes down to odds involving the belgian League has got 1.75 odds on the over 2.5 (2.01 at asians). A huge difference that's way more then the usual gap betweer asia & EU books.
So all these facts make me like the over 2.5 Goals in this spot @ 1.95 (I give it at least around 56%)
So 3/10 on KV Mechelen vs Cercle Brugge -> Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 (Bwin)
